(I originally wrote this back in 2015 around the same time that Telstra drained their Bigpond BigBlog swamp and took my first "Views From an Island Place" blog-site with it. Just found it again while rummaging around in my pending blogs folder. Thought I would let it see the light of day seeing as they are still harping on genetics as the incidence rates rapidly climb faster than we change our genes.) ...
I noticed from an ABC news report a couple of years ago (2nd January 2015) that according to John Hopkins University researchers:-
"Bad luck plays a major role in determining who gets cancer and who does not, according to researchers who say two-thirds of cancers of various types can be blamed on random mutations and not heredity or risky habits like smoking."
Basically what they are saying is that about 65% of most cancers (eg. leukemia and pancreatic, bone, testicular, ovarian and brain cancer, etc.) is caused by purely random chance mutation and not by hereditary or environmental and pollution factors.
This is good news for INDUSTRY and commerce. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain in the elimination of cancer causes, but there are huge profits to be made in selling cancer cures. After all you can't sue or slap an injunction on "random chance" for causing your cancer but a lot of people are going to make a good living out of trying to cure you.
The trouble with this idea of random chance cancer is that it is NOT obeying the laws of random chance (aka the laws of probability). The laws of probability declare that if you have the same number of genes as before you have the same probability of them mutating by pure random chance as before. Without getting into the mathematical detail it means that for any given population size the number of cancer incidents you can expect by pure random chance will always be the same. If the probability was 1 per 1,000 before it will still be 1 per 1,000 now. That is because random chance is a NUMBERS game, and in this case it is the number of genes and the last time I checked we all still have the same number of genes we have always had throughout all of history.
BUT we seem to be in the middle of a rapidly escalating epidemic of "bad luck" which is seeing the rate of cancer incidences (ie. not just number of cases but statistically as in cases per 1,000 population) skyrocketing which can only happen if something OTHER than random chance mutation is at play in our modern world. It is interesting to note from another article elsewhere that, "According to French researchers, the INCIDENCE (my emphasis) of cancer is expected to increase by more than 75% by the year 2030 in developed countries, and over 90% in developing nations. The study is published Online First in the Lancet Oncology."
Even more interesting is that among their findings they note that "Even though very high HDI (Human Development Index) countries only contain 15% of the world's population, they accounted for 40% of cancer cases in the world in 2008."
Cancer is rapidly surging forward and bypassing all others as the number one cause of death and illness in most developed and developing countries. If cancer is merely a case of "bad luck" it would seem that the more you are exposed to modern industry, modern pollution, modern technology, and a modern chemical and radiation laden lifestyle, .... the unluckier you get!
It is clear SOMETHING is rapidly changing to rapidly increase the incidence rate of cancers - but it is not the human genome that has been the same for centuries. Nor is it the natural environment (trees are still trees, grass is still grass, rocks are still rocks, etc.).
In fact the ONLY thing that is changing as rapidly as the cancer rates is our MANMADE modern environment. Not sure why our medical experts seem reluctant to make the connection. Is it possible it may be because there is a whole multi billion dollar industry that RELIES (indeed thrives) on people getting sick? After all you can't sell profitable cures to people who aren't sick!
Just sharing my thoughts.
D.J. Ludlow
D.J. Ludlow
Copyright 2017